The Philippine government should be alarmed by such blatant posturing and fearless pronouncements of the Chinese media. You can observe that political propaganda and military bullying is one of the Chinese's protracted war management tactic. While it's diplomatic machinery has been actively composing itself to politicize the Philippine government by virtue of trying push it to the limit of its own resources, other structural representations of the Chinese communist government is tactically manipulating the groundwork as it advances to its military objectives.
They can consider the conflict between the Philippine government as a "petty war" that can be resolve eventually without firing a shot to conclude it. They would utilize that old communist tactical offensives of politicizing the whole observing world to legitimize its own claims on Scarborough Shoal which is about 230 kilometers off Luzon island, while intensifying its war preparation if in case, conflict in the area would be inevitable, because of possible involvement of the United States and its allies.
As we can observe, the Philippine government has been exhausting its whole efforts of trying to engage China in diplomatic settlement while knowing that it would not deal with them directly. China knows the ins and outs within the streams of the Philippine bureaucracy, by indication, it very well know how people who are working the best of their efforts to convince China to quit from “bullying” the country, until such time that the “ultimate demand” will be made to their great advantage.
As of the moment, the political machinery of the communist is working with overwhelming accuracy, which I believe, is very critical to the ongoing diplomatic negotiations. Although, the Philippines would have certainly moves of bringing the matter to the appreciation of the international community, and also through the United Nations, as its optimal ground of action that would legitimize their diplomatic protest. But, all these actions, to the extent of inviting the whole world to come to rescue and assist the Philippines, the ultimate end would still be protracted war management effort of China to go on, even beyond all the reasons that it could bear until all is won.
It would be that in the next few weeks, or even months, when the smoke of the conflict would rise into the next level, there is that possibility that China will not hesitate to use force to concretize its main objective, just like what it did in 1988 when 64 Vietnamese sailors were massacred. It was an act of war against Vietnam, but, the latter could not do otherwise. Vietnam recognizes China as a powerful giant. You can read the whole account of the story here.
Now, the question, can the Philippine government send troops to Scarborough Shoals to defend the islands? Yes, it is possible, but the soldiers should understand that they would be the “sacrificial lambs” when armed conflict against China will erupt. By so doing, the Philippine government can declare war against China, and the latter would be happy to engage.
By this scenario, what would be the legitimate reaction of the U.S.? None, unless China would declare war against the U.S. But, since, it’s only the Philippines, the burden would be the sole responsibility of the Philippines, because the US government would not be dragging its own resources to this mess because either way, it would be to their geopolitical advantage. So, it would all be Philippines against the giant China only. One on One (What a classic scenario!)
I just hope that the Philippine government, no matter what, must stand firm to its claims and it should not yield to the politicizing of the communist China. With or without diplomacy, war is inevitable.
Finally, I know that Philippines is different from Vietnam, or any other Asian country for that matter.
No comments:
Post a Comment